Welcome to a new release of the ‘LeMesurier interviews’, where we introduce expert voices leading the charge to provide a solid framework to assess the impact of 2ZERO KPIs towards zero-emissions road transport. On this occasion, we interview Giannis Papadimitriou, senior electrical engineer and project manager at EMISIA. Mr Papadimitriou has extensive experience with EU-funded projects, conducting impact assessments of EU transport policies and compiling and reviewing air pollutant and GHG emission inventories in the transport sector. Since 2012, he has led the development and updates of COPERT data and Sibyl baseline data, now utilised within the LeMesurier project, and he has contributed as a transport expert reviewer for GHG and air pollutant emission inventories under UNFCCC, the NEC Directive, and LRTAP Convention.
Mr Papadimitriou, could you elaborate on EMISIA’s specific role and contributions to the LeMesurier project?
EMISIA is a key partner of the LeMesurier project as we co-manage the administrative and technical points of the work. We also lead Work Package 2, where the compound KPIs are being developed, calculated, and assessed. Prof. Zissis Samaras, CEO Charis Kouridis, and I are the key personnel at EMISIA working on this project.
EMISIA has a proven track record of projects engaging with governments and other public and private organisations across the transport and energy sectors. Through our co-leading of this consortium, EMISIA is proud to be playing a significant role in shaping the future research agenda and defining the means to measure its effectiveness.
Can you share your experience implementing the modelling framework and methodology for measuring and monitoring the 2ZERO KPIs and how this approach contributes to achieving the project’s overall objectives?
A detailed modelling framework and methodology for measuring and monitoring the 2ZERO Compound KPIs was envisaged since the writing of the LeMesurier proposal. It is our pleasure to see it being implemented as the project progresses.
The term ‘Compound’ has been selected to describe the KPIs which do not exist in any statistical or other database as single, ready-to-use values but, rather, come out of calculations from complex models involving methods that have been developed and are continuously updated for many years now. The work in progress “accounts for the contribution of the 2ZERO Partnership and the results of its projects towards the partnership’s main objectives and their targets (as measured against the whole set of the identified KPIs)”.
Specifically, the current activities aim to:
- Establish and realise a modelling framework for measuring/monitoring the 2ZERO compound KPIs.
- Exploit the Digital Twins from the 2ZERO funded projects or use its own (i.e., within the LeMesurier consortium) similar tools.
- Establish 2019/2020 baseline values and measure results related to KPIs in the 2025-2035 period.
- Quantify the 2ZERO projects’ contributions to the reduction of the energy and GHG intensity for the mobility of people and goods.
Could you briefly explain the key features and differences of the COPERT/SIBYL, PRIMES/TREMOVE, and MOVEID models used in this project? How do these models complement each other in the context of the LeMesurier project?
COPERT/SIBYL applies a bottom-up approach. This model uses detailed statistical data, projections and future policies on a per-country/year basis, focusing on energy, air pollutants and GHG emissions.
PRIMES-TREMOVE is an economic-engineering model simulating passenger and freight transport demand across all modes in the EU27+UK, optimising vehicle and fuel choices under economic, regulatory and infrastructure constraints.
MOVEID is alinear optimisation model that minimises cumulative life-cycle GHG emissions from the EU27+UK road sector, considering infrastructure, powertrains, and raw material requirements until 2050.
The use of three different models within LeMesurier gives a perspective on the likely KPI variation. It gives a range of projections and dispersion of results to account for the impact of the 2ZERO projects and it allows for sensitivity analysis and estimation of uncertainties.
What have been the main challenges in integrating data from the 2ZERO projects with these models?
For the time being, there seems to be a difficulty in obtaining all relevant detailed data inputs from the projects. Further, some projects may not have the techniques to provide the 2ZERO Compound KPI values.
Regarding the project’s KPI assessment, about half of the projects are expected to contribute to the Compound KPIs. Nevertheless, few aggregated values have been provided up to now and they need further investigation and contact with the projects, for example, through targeted interviews. Moreover, final results are expected after LeMesurier ends.
The approach is summarised as follows.
- We collected relevant data from the three-vehicle parc models using a common template (stock, activity, energy, CO2, GHG).
- Each model has its own dataset for past years and projections. This is usually referred to as the model ‘baseline’ or ‘basecase’ or ‘reference’ scenario.
- The 2019/2020 values of these datasets formulate the so-called “LeMesurier Baseline Compound KPI values”, i.e. values for the base year 2019/2020.
- The values of these datasets for future years formulate the “Intermediate KPI values”.
- The impact of 2ZERO projects produces a different projection formulating the “Measured KPI values”.
The Digital Twin tool is central to the accounting of the compound KPIs. Could you elaborate on its role in the project?
Due to the above challenges, our own simulation tools (Digital Twins) and assumptions are used to estimate the project results and translate them into model inputs. The approach is summarised as follows:
- We compiled a list of all 2ZERO projects’ use cases. Vehicles were classified per category, segment and powertrain. Analysis was performed per project group (i.e., vehicle/component level for energy calculation etc.).
- A physics-based model on a multiscale platform has been set up and parameterised for all vehicle categories (trucks, buses, cars, motorcycles) based on public information (i.e., projects’ websites and deliverables) and assumptions. Validation work for proof-of-concept has been completed.
- Operating conditions have been selected for each vehicle category, segment and powertrain. Drive cycles, i.e., VECTO, WHVC (and more) for trucks / WLTP, NEDC (and more) for cars. Temperatures (5oC, 20oC, 35oC) active thermal management. Load (50% of maximum loading capacity).
- Simulation runs have been completed for BEV rigid truck > 32 t and energy vs. speed curves (KWh/km) have been produced.
The next steps are to finalise the runs for all use cases and provide all inputs required to the vehicle parc models and use estimation methods (i.e., interpolation/extrapolation) for vehicle segments not included in 2ZERO projects.